EUR/USD discussion

[forex vietnam]

EUR/USD failed to settle above critical resistance and its losing ground rather fast. Will it fall more or make another breakout attempt? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.
EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session: Euro/Dollar jumped traded high in the Asian session, but couldn’t stay above 1.3760.
• Current range – 1.37 – 1.3760.

• Further levels in both directions: Below 1.37, 1.3610, 1.35, 1.3440, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3080, 1.2970.
• Above: 1.37, 1.3760, 1.3830, 1.3950, 1.4030, 1.4160 and 1.4230.
• 1.3440 is important support below – just proved itself last week – EUR/USD escaped it once again.
• The failure to conquer the critical 1.3760 a few weeks ago was a bearish sign. We just saw a repeat of this scenario.

Euro/Dollar falling down towards 1.37- click on the graph to enlarge.
EUR/USD Fundamentals -

• 7:00 German Final GDP. Exp. +0.4%. Actual +0.4%.
• 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 403K.
• 13:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Exp. +2.5%. Core Durable Goods Orders exp. 0.4%.
• 15:00 US New Home Sales. Exp. 330K.

* All times are GMT.

[forex vietnam]

EURUSD: The pair is now following through on its Wednesday rally in Thursday trading session today. With the pair now trading above the 1.3744 level, risk of further strength is now seen towards the 1.3859 level, its Feb 02’2011 low. A break of those levels will convince the market of a resumption of its recovery started from the 1.2874 level. Further out, resistance lies at the 1.3970 level, its Nov 09’2010 high and then the 1.4280 level, its 2010. On the downside, support stands at the 1.3527 level, its Feb 22’2011 low followed by the 1.3427 level, its Feb 14’2011 low. A loss of that level will pave the way for more declines towards the 1.3245 level and then the 1.3000 level. All in all, though retaining its overall long-term uptrend, a firm break of the 1.3859/1.4279 level must occur to resume that trend.

[forex vietnam]

Euro Forecast to Continue Rallying Against USD

EURUSD – Currency trading crowds have remained short the Euro against the US Dollar since the pair traded near the 1.3000 mark, providing strong contrarian signal to buy into EURUSD rallies. The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.47 as nearly 71% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.43 as 71% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 6.0% lower than yesterday and 17.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.7% lower than yesterday and 10.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.1% weaker than yesterday and 6.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

[forex vietnam]

EUR/USD still enjoys Trichet’s explicit rate hike talk and looks to break even higher as the king of forex – Non-Farm Payrolls is awaited. Will it end the week even higher? Or is the pair about to lose some gains? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.
EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session: Sleepy session sees Euro/Dollar just above 1.3950
• Current range – 1.3950 – 1.4030.

• Further levels in both directions: Below 1.3950, 1.3860, 1.3760, 1.37, 1.3610, 1.35, 1.3440, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3080, 1.2970.
• Above: 1.4030, 1.4160, 1.4230 and 1.4282.
• 1.3950 is the current pivotal line.
• While 1.40 is eyed by many, real resistance is only at 1.4030.
• Major support is only at 1.3440.

Euro/Dollar around 1.3950 after Trichet – click on the graph to enlarge.
EUR/USD Fundamentals -

• 13:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls. Exp. 200K.
• 13:30 US Unemployment Rate. Exp. 9.1%.
• 13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Exp.+0.2%.
• 15:00 US Factory Orders. Exp.+2.1%.
• 15:00 FOMC member Janet Yellen talks.
• 15:35 ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet talks.